Is Protein a Fad, and Is Cheese Still King?

Right now, high-protein diets are hot and cheese is still the biggest user of U.S. dairy.

But will it last?

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In this episode:

In this episode of The Milk Check, we pull out our crystal balls and try to see into the future of U.S. dairy.

Why GLP-1 may be a catalyst, not the whole protein story

How health and wellness trends are reshaping dairy demand

How exports could change the future of cheese demand

The consensus?

Find out in The Milk Check episode 100: Is Protein a Fad, and Is Cheese Still King?

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Transcript:

Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check.

The debate is: have GLP-1s changed dairy forever? Our second debate is will cheese remain king?

Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in.

Ted Jacoby III: Excited for our topic today. We are going to have a debate. The debate is: have GLP-1s changed dairy forever? The demand for protein right now is clearly extremely strong. It’s really a question of whether we think this demand for protein is a fad, or we think it’s a fundamental shift in demand that’s gonna be with us for a long time.

And so I’m gonna actually put Mike Brown on the spot first. Mike, has GLP-1s changed dairy forever?

Mike Brown: It certainly changed me forever. And I’m a big eater dairy for a long time. I’ve had good success with GLP’s getting my weight to where it needs to be, and one thing you do discover is that you do need to really watch your protein intake.

You need to make sure you’re getting adequate amounts because you will lose muscle. I think diets in general, we’re becoming less carb-focused.

We’re becoming more protein-focused. So, I don’t see it going away. Does that mean we’ll have the record-high prices we have now forever? Probably not the markets will stay strong, and I think it’s a shift in consumer demand . You just need to go into any Costco or Sam’s Club, and the amount of protein beverages they offer now versus three years ago, they’ve tripled in some cases.

So, it’s definitely a market of strength. And despite the high price of proteins, people still seem to be buying it. I’ll see limits when there’s sales in different stores, which tells you that demand is still extremely strong.

Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I’ll ask you next.

Are we changing demand forever, or is this a fad?

Josh White: I don’t know that GLP-1s are necessarily what’s changing demand forever, but they definitely are a catalyst and a disruptor right now. We were listening to a HighGround Monthly Update earlier today. I’ll echo something that was said during that update: A health and wellness trend [00:02:00] is absolutely happening, is global. They noted and cited in that, that over the last two years, gym memberships have been up in the U.S. If you go to other parts of the world that we export products to that GLP-1s haven’t yet reached, we’re seeing incredible health and wellness movements and protein consumption uptake.

So, what I think the GLP-1 aspect of it is doing is that it served as a bit of a catalyst and ignited this market and forced us all to recognize this shift that we’re seeing from just calories taken in to quality of calories taken in, and that is driving a lot of incremental protein demand that the dairy space is a benefactor of to date.

So, I don’t know if I really answered it, Ted. I think GLP-1 is a catalyst in forcing us to recognize a bigger trend that we’re seeing, not only in the U.S., but globally.

Jacob Menge: I do think it’s pretty important to talk about the time horizon that we’re discussing because there’s a really big difference in both availability and dietary preference of protein sources globally, right?

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