Show Notes
Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with European chemicals giant INEOS Group, where geopolitical chaos has created an unexpected windfall. What began as Middle East conflict disrupting global supply chains has turned into a potential EBITDA doubling opportunity for Sir Jim Ratcliffe's petrochemical empire. Daniel Avis, Primary Reporter at Octus, joins (01:17) to discuss how INEOS's ethane cracker advantage and North Sea oil access position the company as a clear winner while Asian competitors declare force majeure. From there (10:27), the hosts pivot to Latvian state backed carrier Air Baltic, facing a liquidity crunch that has sent its bonds from near par to the 40s in just three months. The airline's shocking revelation, only 10% hedging on 2026 jet fuel compared to Ryanair's 80%, has left investors questioning management strategy as European fuel prices hit all time highs. S&P's recent downgrade signals distressed restructuring as "all but inevitable" without immediate intervention. This episode's unofficial cultural sponsor, Jonathan the 192 year old tortoise (18:23), makes his crypto debut through an alleged meme coin scam. The tongue in cheek tribute highlights market manipulation tactics before Phoebe and Katie transition to "Identify the Refi," featuring French care home operator Clarion's 500 million euro refinancing and Swiss specialty chemicals firm Arxada's rejected amendment proposal. The show closes with afternoon tea (18:00), where tortoise resurrection metaphors meet bond refinancing reality. The hosts celebrate successful guessing games and preview upcoming liquidity walls across European distressed credits. ----more---- Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng & Katie McMahonGuest: Daniel Avis (Primary Reporter, Octus)Produced by Charlie Hall and Edited by Fawaz MuhammedA Production of The Octus Podcast Network
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