Show Notes
Post-COVID structural shifts like deglobalization and tariffs have permanently eliminated the cheap goods deflation that previously offset services inflation, leaving the U.S. settled in a 3% inflation world where a 5% nominal growth rate justifies matching 5% interest rates.
Chapters 00:00 Introduction: Inflation Reality vs. Consensus 02:22 Nominal GDP Framework and 5% Yields 06:36 Core PCE, China, and the End of Goods Deflation 11:15 Protectionism, Tariffs, and the BYD Example 15:02 Why We Are Stuck in a 3% Inflation World 23:38 Rising Inflation Volatility and Remote Work 28:13 Monetary Policy: Why the Fed Must Focus on Nominal GDP 32:37 Closing Remarks
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