DHUnplugged #806: Buy the Rumor and The News

Let's Make a Deal!

News Dominated by ... SpaceX

This week - Fed rate Decision

Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Let's Make a Deal! - News Dominated by ... SpaceX - This week - Fed rate Decision - Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)

Markets - Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again - IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi - SpaceX IPO - could drain markets - More AI valuations through the roof

DEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.

Market Valuations - S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5 - 10-yr average = 19–20x - Long-term average 18-19 - Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.

- NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24 - 1-yr average ~23x - 20-yr average ~20–21x - Not screaming expensive on a forward basis - - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40

NEW Playbook - But the Rumor and Buy the News - used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News - This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow.... - Monday = Deal, Friday = signing

On that note - What is the deal anyway? - Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final - Straights of Hormuz opening -?? - Has anyone seen the text? - We are no better than we were before all this started...

Headline Nonsense - Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k) - Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums - This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals - HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this. - - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look at the options...

More Retirement Alerts - Social Security running out again.... - Less that 10 year until the reserves are exhausted - The Social Security Administration’s newly released 2026 Trustees Report confirms that the federal retirement safety net is less than seven years away from fiscal depletion, as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will completely exhaust its accumulated reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. - Once the reserve dries up, ongoing tax revenues will cover only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the report. - Some of the blame is being laid on the OBBBA with higher standard deductions and lower taxes on SS Benefits - "The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65," it says. "As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits."

PSA - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified a recall of more than 900 cases of Alfredo sauce at its highest risk level after a supplier recalled a dry milk powder ingredient used in the product due to potential salmonella contamination. - The FDA designated the recall as a Class I event, its most serious classification, meaning there is a reasonable probability that use of or exposure to the product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death. - The Coffee Connexion Co., Inc. - According to the FDA, the product was distributed in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland,