Tom & Mick: Trading Livestock, Grazing Systems and the Long Game with Nigel Kerin
Humans of AgricultureShow Notes
The Tom & Mick show continues with a practical conversation on livestock trading, grazing systems, business resilience and long-term decision making.
Tom and Mick are joined by Nigel Kerin, CEO of Kerin Ag, to unpack how his business approaches livestock trading, forward contracts, pasture management, Wagyu, and the systems that drive profitability through both dry and strong seasons.
From the role of grass budgets and forward pricing to lessons from drought, inflation and on-farm technology, Nigel shares a grounded look at what it takes to build a resilient livestock business.
In this episode: Nigel’s background and Kerin Ag Central west NSW grazing business based south of Dubbo Kerin Ag founded through succession in 2007 Built around Merinos, a newer Wagyu seedstock arm, and a growing trading enterprise How the trading business works Trading introduced as a pressure valve for seasonal variability and cashflow Decisions driven by grass budgets, not headline market prices Focus on securing the sell price first, then finding the buy Forward contracts used to remove emotion and manage downside risk Why relationships matter The value of strong relationships with agents, commission buyers, financiers, processors and transporters Creating win-win outcomes across the supply chain Why trust and consistency matter when operating at speed in trading markets The 2020 lamb trade Locking in a $9/kg dressed weight JBS contract as drought broke Contracting 15,800 lambs before owning any of them How forward pricing protected the business when the spot market later fell sharply A defining trade that helped get the business back in the black Should every livestock producer trade? Nigel’s view: absolutely not Why trading needs systems, rules, finance and discipline The danger of trading without forward pricing or without enough grass Technology and grazing systems Regular pasture analysis every 10–14 days in growing periods Using OptiWeigh, soil moisture probes and grazing data to drive decisions The emergence of a new grazing app Nigel describes as potentially “the auto-steer for grazing” Why Kerin Ag moved into Wagyu Return on grass as a major driver Lower adult cow weight and efficiency compared with larger framed alternatives Taking a long-game view on Wagyu economics rather than reacting to short-term cycles Inflation and on-farm economics Nigel’s estimate that on-farm inflation has run at 7.8% annually post-COVID Why understanding business cost inflation is critical to decision making The importance of introducing structural change in good times, not when under pressure Key business lessons Systems matter more than goals on their own Feed efficiency and speed of turnover are central to profit In agriculture, long-term averages matter more than short-term noise “Don’t run out of grass” remains one of the core rules of a successful trading business
This episode is full of practical insight for livestock producers, graziers, advisors, seedstock operators and ag businesses thinking about risk, trading, pasture utilisation and long-term business performance. It’s a valuable conversation on how to build guardrails, use data well, and make better decisions through changing seasons and volatile conditions.
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