EP 17 | Ubisoft's Gaming Crisis, Pokémon Card Fraud, and Diamond Mine Collapse
Credit Lens: Europe & BeyondShow Notes
Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with Ubisoft's mounting financial crisis, where the gaming giant faces a critical November deadline on its convertible debt. What began as disappointing game sales has spiralled into a 1.6 billion debt stack review by White and Case. Charlie Ward, Credit Analyst at Octus, joins (02:11) to break down the failed Star Wars Outlaws release that sold one million copies against analyst expectations of five to six million, the FY26 cash burn of €450 million with €500 million more guided for next year, and the Tencent joint venture that has effectively ring-fenced €660 million of the group's €1.3 billion cash position. With November's convertible put option expected to be fully exercised at €450-500 million, the options are narrowing fast: sell more of the JV to Tencent or engage creditors on an amend-and-extend while the notoriously loose 20-page debt documents still allow it. From there (14:17), the conversation shifts to fraud in French private education. Collège de Paris is facing collapse after its Digital College subsidiary director invoiced €534,000 in Pokémon cards as "digital event supplies" and drew company funds toward his wedding. But behind the colour is a sector under genuine structural pressure, with falling enrolment, AI disruption to vocational training programmes, and cuts to French state apprenticeship support all bearing down at once. Petra Diamonds (23:17), a name Katie has been tracking for years, is back on the agenda. Six months after a refinancing that was supposed to draw a line under the company's troubles, lab-grown diamonds continue to erode demand for the smaller stones that make up much of Petra's output. The South African miner's recent blue diamond discovery couldn't prevent the Finsch Mine shutdown and potential Cullinan Mine capex cuts. Katie explains where things now stand. The episode closes with Jargon Busters (29:03), where Phoebe and Katie decode PIK versus PICE, DIP versus double-dip, BDCs, CLOs, and significant risk transfer transactions, with a hint that a dedicated SRT episode may be on the way.
----more----Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng & Katie McMahonGuest: Charlie Ward (Credit Analyst, Octus)Produced by Charlie Hall Edited by Fawaz MuhammedA Production of The Octus Podcast Network
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