Show Notes
Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved.
To understand how Germany would respond under these conditions, WELT, together with the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, conducted a high-level public wargame.
We wanted to answer three questions: What happens if Russia attacks a NATO ally? How would Germany respond? And where are the weaknesses in its political decision-making? Germany is Europe’s largest economy, NATO’s logistical backbone on the continent and has pledged to build “the strongest conventional army in Europe”. Its response would shape the alliance’s reaction.
Former senior politicians, military leaders and security experts spend a day stepping into the roles of Germany’s federal government and the Kremlin. While governments and armed forces regularly conduct wargames behind closed doors, we decided to make ours public. The project sparked a wide debate in Germany and internationally and is now available in English.
In Episode 1, Germany’s crisis cabinet convenes for the first time. Faced with mounting chaos, the Blue Team must determine whether Russian troop movements near Lithuania are merely coercion — or the beginning of something far more dangerous.
Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Producer: Marvin Schwarz
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The participants of the wargame:
Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad
Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven
International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot
Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements.
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More from Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame
The wargame is heading toward a decisive moment. In our fictional scenario, Russian troops are digging in. And Europe is struggling to find a response that neither triggers panic at home nor signals weakness abroad. The overarching question is: Who is really in control of the escalation?
Europe's post-war order is facing its most severe test yet in our simulation. While the fictional German cabinet searches for a way out, the Red Team playing the Kremlin has a plan ready — one that targets Germany's role as NATO's logistical hub. In the Baltic Sea, Berlin faces a dilemma, and the ministers and their advisors are forced to take a long, hard look at themselves, as the Chancellor puts it.
What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow.
In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there.
What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses?