Show Notes
What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow.
In Episode 3 of "Ernstfall – What If Russia Attacks NATO?" the fictional federal cabinet turns its attention to Washington. Will NATO's most important ally stand with Europe—the only power capable of providing credible security guarantees in such a crisis? At the same time, the Red Team deliberately probes Germany's vulnerabilities: domestic political tensions, economic dependencies, and the country's pivotal role as NATO's logistical hub. The simulation reaches a stage where every decision creates new risks.
Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten
Produced by: Marvin Schwarz
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The participants of the wargame:
Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad
Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven
International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot
Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements.
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More from Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame
The wargame is heading toward a decisive moment. In our fictional scenario, Russian troops are digging in. And Europe is struggling to find a response that neither triggers panic at home nor signals weakness abroad. The overarching question is: Who is really in control of the escalation?
Europe's post-war order is facing its most severe test yet in our simulation. While the fictional German cabinet searches for a way out, the Red Team playing the Kremlin has a plan ready — one that targets Germany's role as NATO's logistical hub. In the Baltic Sea, Berlin faces a dilemma, and the ministers and their advisors are forced to take a long, hard look at themselves, as the Chancellor puts it.
In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there.
Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved.
What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses?