Forget Rate Cuts: Why We're Stuck at This Level for a While with Vanessa Rader
That Backyard Property PodcastShow Notes
From next year, negative gearing will be gone for residential property investors unless they're buying a new build, a change that's already reshaping where smart money is flowing. In this episode, Michael sits down with Vanessa Rader, Head of Research at Ray White, to unpack the federal budget's property fallout, from commercial real estate to stamp duty, unemployment data, and the modular housing revolution set to solve Australia's tradie shortage. 🔔 Subscribe & leave a comment with your questions — we build episodes around what YOU want to know. General advice only and not personal advice. CRN 485467 --------------------------------- In this episode: Why negative gearing is being scrapped for resi investors, but not new builds How the change could push more buyers into commercial property The real difference between residential and commercial yields Why commercial leases are far more complex than resi What falling stamp duty revenue means for state governments The CGT discount changes and what they cost property sellers Why unemployment data may be worse than the official numbers show Where interest rates are headed over the next 12 to 18 months Why 40% of Australia's tradies are over 50, and how modular homes could be the fix --------------------------------- Timecodes: (00:00) Cold open: is unemployment data being manipulated? (01:00) Welcome Vanessa Rader, Ray White Head of Research (01:35) Federal budget changes and commercial property (02:05) Negative gearing scrapped for resi investors (04:23) Why commercial property needs bigger deposits (07:10) Stamp duty and the CGT discount changes (09:49) The land tax debate and the Victoria problem (13:29) Is unemployment data being manipulated? (18:25) Interest rate outlook for the next 12 to 18 months (22:24) Why banks are lifting fixed rates (26:09) 40% of tradies are over 50: the modular homes fix (32:03) Vacant holiday homes and the co-living trend (34:55) Why Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane aren't Sydney or Melbourne (37:23) Being greedy when others are fearful Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/@ThatBackyardPropertyPodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/backyardpropertypod?igsh=MWhkOWx5YzJxdDc3ag== Website: https://tuskfinance.com.au Connect with Michael: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tuskfinancemk Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mortgageswmichael LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelkilliner TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@backyardpropertypodcast Tusk Finance: [email protected] Produced by Podwave Studios: https://www.podwavestudios.au #AustralianProperty #RealEstate #PropertyInvesting #NegativeGearing #CapitalGainsTax #StampDuty #InterestRates #RBA #CommercialProperty #ModularHomes #Construction #PerthProperty #PropertyMarket #RealEstateInvesting #Mortgage #WealthBuilding #TuskFinance #ThatBackyardPropertyPod #RayWhite #EconomicOutlook
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Book a consult with Michael: https://calendly.com/d/cwrg-969-cjc
Perth home values are down 3.2% from their April peak, but still up 15.6% on a year ago. In this mini episode, Michael Killiner breaks down how existing owners should decide whether to keep, sell or restructure: the marginal buyer question, how to sell well in a market with more stock, and the loan levers that often matter more than your rate, from resetting your loan term and checking your valuation to interest-only expiries, cross-securitised loans, the loyalty tax and whether to fix now.
Days on market in Perth have blown out from 8 days to 21, and sellers are still pricing like it is last year. In this episode, Michael Killiner sits down with Rowen Powell, Director of Verve Buyers Agency, to ask where the Perth market really sits right now and whether we will look back and wish we had bought more property. Rowen unpacks over 7,000 listings, why a 3.7% pullback needs context after 15.6% growth, what makes a compromise asset, and why buyers are holding out for scarcity and forever homes. They also dig into the gap between appraisals and what buyers will pay, the risk of leaning on computer valuations, and what actually wins an offer in Perth today. To finish, Rowen shares where he thinks the market lands in 6 and 12 months, and Michael looks at hold costs and whether forced selling could appear next year. Essential listening for buyers, sellers and investors who want to understand how to make calm, calculated decisions in a wait and see market. 🔔 Subscribe and leave a comment with your questions -- we build episodes around what YOU want to know. General advice only and not personal advice. CRN 485467 ------------------------------------------------------------ In this episode: - Why spring has not delivered the usual spike, with more than 7,000 listings and townhouses, apartments and outer fringe stock leading the increase. - How to read a 3.7% drop since April when the previous 12 months delivered 15.6% growth, and why a wet winter and post-budget mood skew the numbers. - What a compromise asset looks like, from busy roads and poor orientation to school zones and redevelopment risk, and why buyers now want a forever home. - The valuation gap, where a $1 million appraisal becomes a $950,000 sale, and why that $50,000 tax-free difference keeps sellers on the hill. - Why you should get more than one recent appraisal, and how computer valuations and bridging loans can leave sellers stuck. - What wins offers now, including clean contracts, flexible settlements and rent backs, plus the traps of buying off market. - Why the wrong house at a discount is still the wrong house, and how to stress test repayments and your offset buffer before you buy. ------------------------------------------------------------ Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@ThatBackyardPropertyPodcast Instagram: https://instagram.com/backyardpropertypod?igsh=MWhkOWx5YzJxdDc3ag== Website: https://tuskfinance.com.au Connect with Michael: Facebook: https://facebook.com/tuskfinancemk Instagram: https://instagram.com/mortgageswmichael LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/michaelkilliner TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@backyardpropertypodcast Tusk Finance: [email protected] ------------------------------------------------------------ Chapters: (0:00) Will we wish we bought more property (1:30) 7,000 listings and a wait and see market (3:05) Replacement cost and the market floor (4:30) A 3.7% drop after 15.6% growth (5:50) What a compromise asset looks like (8:00) Baldivis, Ocean Reef and a tiered market (12:00) The $50,000 tax-free valuation gap (14:20) Computer valuations and bridging risk (16:15) What wins offers in Perth now (19:15) The off market trap (20:55) Where the market sits in 6 and 12 months (22:40) Rates, hold costs and forced selling (24:45) Longer home opens and days on market ------------------------------------------------------------ Produced by Podwave Studios: https://www.podwavestudios.au #ThatBackyardPropertyPodcast #PropertyPodcast #PerthProperty #PropertyInvesting #BuyersAgent #VerveBuyersAgency #PerthRealEstate #PropertyMarket #HomeBuyers #TuskFinance
A median priced Perth investment house now costs around $750 a week to hold, and from 1 July 2027 you can no longer use that loss to cut the tax on your salary. In this mini episode, Michael Killiner works through what the budget really means for anyone thinking about buying their first investment property.