Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen
Other People's Money with Max WietheShow Notes
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Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift
01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate
04:19 Bond Trade Timing
06:13 Steep Curve Playbook
09:41 Why Steepening Helps
12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk
14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds
16:51 India Data Versus Rupee
18:24 Energy Supply Countdown
21:23 LatAm Underperformance
23:27 AI Inflation Link
26:52 Korea Semis Surge
28:26 Momentum with Earnings
30:39 Quantum Hype Warning
32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question
34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip
39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation
43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed
46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade
49:21 Goods Inflation Returns
51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics
54:07 White Collar Disruption Map
59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts
01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge
01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
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