
Show Notes
Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.
Chapters 00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation 00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview 01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda 02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact 06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance 11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed 13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put 15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics 18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present) 25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance 30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach 33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up
Charts Used: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126
More from Rational Dissent
Post-COVID structural shifts like deglobalization and tariffs have permanently eliminated the cheap goods deflation that previously offset services inflation, leaving the U.S. settled in a 3% inflation world where a 5% nominal growth rate justifies matching 5% interest rates.
Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000.
Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID.
Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade.
With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 16-year highs at 5.20%, is this the return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?