Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark
Other People's Money with Max WietheShow Notes
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In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets.
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Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund.
This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb.
Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky
04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds
08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary
14:12 Japan Leads
16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields
20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB
21:58 High Real Rates New Normal
26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise
29:09 Housing Tug of War
34:02 Politics Converge Anyway
36:03 Chips Are New Oil
38:38 Is AI a Bubble?
44:12 AI and Wage Politics
50:37 Strategic AI Spending
54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks
59:29 Private Credit Red Flags
01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.
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