“Nuclear Doctrine Is Not the Holy Bible”. Strategic Stability in 2026 | Dmitry Stefanovich, Sofia Babkina

Is nuclear deterrence still working in a multipolar world? Why is the gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict growing? What do recent strikes on nuclear facilities mean for global non-proliferation norms? And what can we expect from the NPT regime ahead of the 2026 Review Conference?

In this episode of “Foreign Policy,” podcast Editor-in-Chief Sofia Babkina speaks with Dmitry Stefanovich (IMEMO RAS) about the changing logic of nuclear deterrence in a multipolar world.

The discussion explores the widening gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict, the implications of recent strikes on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, as well as the future prospects of the NPT regime and the upcoming 2026 RevCon.

Guest: Mr. Dmitry Stefanovich, Research Fellow, IMEMO RAS; Author, “STRATDELA”substack Host: Ms. Sofia Babkina, Research Fellow, MGIMO Institute for International Studies

Time Stamps:

00:06 Intro 02:28 Is Nuclear Deterrence Still Working? 03:42 Multipolarity and Strategic (In)stability 04:36 Russia, the United States and China: Different Nuclear Logics 06:58 The Role of Allies in Nuclear Strategy 08:51 Strikes on Nuclear Facilities: A Dangerous Precedent 09:34 Will More Countries Seek Nuclear Weapons? 10:36 Hypersonic Weapons: Ambiguity, Compressed Decision Time and Miscalculation 12:57 Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Limited War 13:56 Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Power and Missile Defense 15:21 Space as a Domain of Strategic Competition 16:29 Commercial Satellites and Modern Warfare 17:02 The Future of the NPT Regime 18:06 NPT RevCon 2026: Can the Treaty Survive? 19:25 Q&A 19:33 (Mis)perception of Technology That Changed Escalation More Than Expected 20:15 Which Region Is Most Dangerous Today? 20:52 Underrated Stabilizing Mechanisms 21:23 Which Cold War Observations No Longer Apply? 22:13 Three Strategic Developments to Watch in 2026

This is the second English-language episode of the “Foreign Policy” podcast. You can listen to the first episode with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi by following the link.

The Institute for International Studies (IIS) is a multi-disciplinary research branch of MGIMO University, established in 1976 as the Problem Research Laboratory for System Analysis of International Relations, and last renamed in 2009. We pride ourselves on our history of conducting innovative, in-depth, applied research in IR.

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