Show Notes
Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.
More from Rational Dissent
Post-COVID structural shifts like deglobalization and tariffs have permanently eliminated the cheap goods deflation that previously offset services inflation, leaving the U.S. settled in a 3% inflation world where a 5% nominal growth rate justifies matching 5% interest rates.
Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000.
Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID.
Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade.
With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 16-year highs at 5.20%, is this the return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?