Show Notes
US and the World
It has been a solidly good spring in the American Midwest with no major planting issues. On June 29th USDA estimated 67% of the US corn crop was good to excellent while soybeans we’re rated at 65% good to excellent. June 30th always represents a benchmark for grain markets with the release of the June 30th acreage report. Acreage is important and in past years the June 30th acreage report would often serve as a volatile reminder of how prices can ebb and flow. Sometimes the changes in the report can be dramatic, and sometimes not. 2026 proved to be the latter.
USDA is estimating that there will be 95.3 million acres of corn in the United States this year. This is down 3.5 million acres from last year’s 98.8 million acres of corn. This acreage is the 5th largest on record but points to the second largest corn crop ever after last year. The quarterly corn stocks number came in at 5.29 billion bushels which was up 14% from 2025.
Soybeans were the benefactor from the lower corn numbers. US soybean acreage is set to come in at 85.4 million acres this year. This is 5% higher than a year ago. The quarterly stocks numbers for soybeans came in at 1.06 million bushels which was 5% higher than a year ago. The bigger surprise in the acreage equation was wheat which came in at 42.7 million acres, 1.1 million acres below expectations. This will be the lowest US wheat acreage on record.
On July 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat were higher than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures was at $4.23 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.41 bu. The August 2026 soybean futures was at $11.36 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.47. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.99 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2027 contract closing at $6.89 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of July 3rd, 2026, closed at $68.78/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $84.88/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.17/gallon, lower vs the $2.18/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on July 3rd, 2026, was .7042 US, down vs the .7155 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
In Ontario things are looking pretty good. Very hot weather has pushed development in both corn and soybeans. There is dryness in southwestern Ontario where a widespread rain would be welcome especially going into pollination for the corn crop. However, it is a different story in eastern Ontario where they’ve had widespread rains and it is such a different story than last year when drought ruled the day. Winter wheat harvest has commenced in Essex County as of early July and this will ramp up across Ontario depending on the weather in the next couple of weeks.
It’s important to remember that Ontario is a big province with croplands stretching from Windsor to the Quebec border as well as up into northern Ontario and as far West as the Rainy River district. This will not only lead to variable conditions province wide but also differences in cash markets. Producers should always be vigilant of this when marketing their grain.
The Canadian dollar has fallen below the $71 US range over the last couple of weeks which is further added stimulus to Ontario cash prices. This has happened at a time when futures prices have risen slightly compared to the lower values of a few weeks ago. This has caused basis levels to strengthen for both corn and soybeans. Keep in mind the traditional higher basis level for eastern Ontario corn is happening reflecting the lower production numbers from last year’s drought as well as a robust export program from Ontario.
Old crop corn basis levels are $1.50 to $2.35 over the September 2026 corn futures on July 3rd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.35 to $1.86 over Dec 202