Show Notes
US and the World
It is that time of year again when we’re in the homestretch hurtling toward most critical crop development time of the year. Often times, seasonality tells us that some of the best prices for new crop are had in mid-June and early July. This is the time when the crop can go through difficult times during the growing season. However, so far things look pretty good. US corn planting was 97% complete as of June 8th with soybeans coming in at 92%. 66% of the US corn crop looked good to excellent as of June 8th about four points less than last year’s 71%. USDA estimated that 65% of soybeans that had emerged were in good to excellent condition. It is a long road; the USDA released their latest report on June the 11th.
The USDA made few changes in their June WASDE report. It is sticking with their estimate of 15.995 billion bushels of corn based on an average yield of 183 bushels per acre which will put us at the second largest corn crop ever after last year. Acreage remains the same at 95.3 million acres. Total domestic use for US corn is forecast at 13.055 billion bushels with corn exports projected now would be 3.15 billion bushels. New crop ending corn ending stocks are set to come in at 1.96 billion bushels. Old crop corn ending stocks also were bumped up sitting at 2.145 billion bushels. Brazilian and Argentinian corn production was also raised to 138 MMT and 43 MMT respectively.
On the soybean side of the equation the USDA made no changes from last month’s report. We are still looking at 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans at a trend line estimate of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If this comes to fruition, it’ll be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. One telling statistics from the USDA report was the US winter wheat production which was cut from 1.048 billion bushels to 1.029 billion bushels. This will mean that is the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1965.
On June 12th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.12 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.40 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.13 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.84 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.18 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.42 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of June 12th, 2026, closed at $84.88/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $105.42/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.18/gallon, lower vs the $2.22/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on June 12th, 2026, was .7155 US, down vs the .7272 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
A long stretch of good weather his certainly been good for planting progress across Ontario. For the most part both corn and soybeans have been planted as of June the 13th. Rainfall has been in short supply which is added planting progress. There is some uneven emergence in heavier soils but the big issue going into later June is moisture. The crop will need that to give it a head start on what could be a very hot Month of July.
Winter wheat continues to march toward harvest time. It has benefited from some ideal temperatures earlier in June and later in May. Lots of fungicide application is apparent as you drive by Ontario wheat fields. As it stands now we’re looking at 1.17 million acres of wheat, 2.89 million acres of soybeans and 2.32 million acres of corn in Ontario this spring.
Basis levels have actually been maintained versus the last Market Trends report partly because the Canadian dollar is lower at .7155 US. This has mitigated the price decline regarding basis as futures have declined significantly. With the Canadian dollar showing weakness old crop corn basis is actually increased slightly w