Show Notes
US and the World
It is that time of year again. In many ways August represents the time for the stretch drive in crop development as soybeans need moisture to set pods and corn needs some moisture to finish. It has been somewhat of an uneven year in many areas within the greater North American corn belt. There has been lots of dryness and heat as well as too much rain in some areas. However, as we head into late August it looks like the crop is a good one coming into September. On August 9th the USDA estimated the US corn crop at 61% good to excellent at full 11 percentage points below last year’s 72%. Soybeans were rated at 61% good to excellent, six percentage point below last year’s 68%. A little bit of benign weather going forward and we’ll be able to bring this crop home. The USDA came out with their latest WASDE report on Wednesday August the 12th.
Some of the biggest news from the USDA report had to do with an increase in planted acreage for both corn and soybeans. The USDA estimated an additional 1.4 million acres for both corn and soybeans. This boosted corn acres up to 96.7 million acres and increased production to 16.013 billion bushels. This happened despite a drop in yield by 2.3 bushels per acre at 180.7 bushels per acre. This put corn ending stocks for 2026 and 2027 projected at 1.653 billion bushels down from 1.79 billion bushels last month. If this yield potential is realized the US will have the second largest corn crop on record this year.
Soybeans got the additional 1.4 million acres which translates to 4.519 billion bushels using a trendline yield estimate of 52.7 bushels per acre. This is on planted acreage of 86.8 million acres with harvested acreage at 85.5 million acres. If this comes to fruition we will have the largest American soybean crop in history. New crop US ending stocks came in at 320 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production at 186 MMT and Argentina at 50 MMT. USDA estimated total US wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels a slight cut from the July report.
On Aug 14th corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. September 2026 corn futures were at $4.59 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.83 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.92 bu. The Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.74 a bushel. The Minneapolis Sept 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.78 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $7.10 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of Aug 14th, 2026, closed at $82.40/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $89.31/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.23/gallon, higher vs the $2.19/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on August 14th, 2026, was .7207 US, higher vs the .7096 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
In Ontario any drought in the deep southwest was broken by early August and now as of August 14th soil moisture across the province has been exceptional to excessive in some areas. This is meant that crops are developing under ideal conditions without the drought stressors from July. Labour Day is still 3 weeks out and producers will be hoping for more benign ideal weather heading into early September. Crops could really benefit.
Wheat harvest is approximately 96% completed according to an estimate from the Grain Farmers of Ontario as of August the 13th. It was the tale of two halves as West of Toronto the harvest was pretty good with good quality during the dry period of late July. However, in eastern Ontario it has been a much tougher battle as rainy weather has led to downgrades and challenges in the field. A new pest called the orange wheat blossom midge has been identified in some Ontario wheat fields, which has led to some surprisingly lower wheat yields in some areas.
Basis levels for grains are lower than they were three weeks ago. To a large ex