Show Notes
US and the World
Harvest time is in full swing across the greater North American corn belt. As of October, the 4th 23% of US corn has been harvested which is 4 percentage points behind the five-year average of 27%. On the soybean side 25% of American soybeans have been harvested as of October the 5th. This is 8 percentage points behind the five-year average of 33%. In other words, harvest has been progressing at full bore with some complications from wet weather. Of course, when the sun shines and the wind blows harvest will surely continue. On October 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report.
The USDA shocked the market by raising corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre. This had the effect of raising production from 15.8 billion bushels to 16.03 billion bushels. This was at the high end of expectations and exceeded them in certain cases. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised to 1.849 billion bushels up from the 1.567 billion bushels in September. US corn exports were projected at 3.3 billion bushels up 25 million bushels from last month. Total usage now comes in at 16.305 billion bushels up from 16.18 billion bushels last month.
The USDA increased the soybean crop forecast from last month. USDA is now estimating farmers will grow 4.562 billion bushels of soybeans with the trend line yield estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre planted on 86.9 million acres with harvest acreage coming in at 85.9 million. This was within trade expectations as the numbers are overall neutral for soybeans. For old crop soybeans the domestic ending stocks fell to 315 million bushels. USDA pegged US wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels.
On October 9th, corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. December 2026 corn futures were at $4.79 a bushel. Dec 2027 corn was at $5.11 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $12.92 bu. The December 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.71 a bushel. The Minneapolis Dec 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.71 a bushel with the July 2027 contract closing at $6.95 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of October 9th, 2026, closed at $91.85/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $100.05/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.28/gallon, higher vs the $2.26/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on October 9th, 2026, was .7007 US, lower vs the .7212 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
In Ontario a good stretch of harvest weather in the first week of October helped farmers get into the fields to harvest soybeans and plant wheat right behind the combine. As of October 7th, 2026, Grain Farmers of Ontario estimate 44% of Ontario soybeans have been harvested. Yields have been good even above average in many areas in southwestern Ontario.
Ontario basis levels for corn have softened over the last month despite the Canadian dollar going down to 0.7007 US. There also were some early premiums for corn that was harvested before October the 15th in southwestern Ontario. The soybean basis has been very reflective of the lower Canadian dollar and maintained much of its value since last month.
Headwinds have been the order of the day with regard to the Canadian dollar with some economic numbers for the Canadian economy being lower than expected as well as separatist concerns in both Quebec and Alberta. In many ways this might represent an opportunity to price cash grain versus an ascendant loonie sometime later. As always, it is a great challenge for Ontario farmers to balance both grain futures gyrations versus the value of the Canadian dollar.
Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $1.61 over the December 2026 corn futures on Oct 9th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.30 over Dec 2027 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.90 to $4.