Show Notes
US and the World
Planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. It is that time of year when the rubber meets the road with regard to all the plans put in place over the last few months. As of May, the 10th 57% of corn was planted in the US and 49% of intended soybean acreage was in the ground. So we’re off to a very good start. However, as every farmer knows there’s lots of risks planting those fields and there’s lots of risk ahead. Markets have been volatile. On Tuesday May the 12th the USDA released their latest WASDE report. The May report is USDA’s first detailed look into crop production for the 2026/2027 crop year.
USDA is predicting new crop corn to be 15.995 billion bushels based on the yield guess of 183 bushels per acre. This was within pre report estimates and if it comes to fruition, it will be the second largest corn crop on record trailing only last year’s 17.02-billion-bushel blockbuster. The planted acreage is set to come in at 95.3 million acres with harvested acreage projected at 87.4 million acres. It really wasn’t a big surprise with regard to these fundamental numbers. The corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to be 1.957 billion bushels. Total corn usage is estimated to be 16.205 billion bushels.
On the soybean side of the equation, USDA estimated numbers of 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans with a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If it comes to fruition, this will be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. US domestic soybean stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels which was on the bottom end of the pre report estimates. The Brazilians are set to produce another 186 MMT crop of soybeans and the Argentinians are set to come in at 48 MMTs. USDA estimated 2026/2027 US wheat production to be 1.561 billion bushels which is a decrease from the 1.921 billion bushels last May. If this production comes to fruition, it will be the lowest wheat production since 1972.
On May 15th corn and soybeans were about the same and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.77 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.70. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.35 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.85 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.05 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of May 15th, 2026, closed at $105.42/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $94.40/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.22/gallon, higher vs the $2.21/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7272 US, down vs the .7311 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
The Grain Farmers of Ontario’s estimation of planting put corn planting at 52% complete, soybeans are at 16 per cent complete, and spring cereals planting is 62 per cent complete across the province as of Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Weather has been uneven early in the season and especially cold going into mid-May. Producers will be hoping for hot weather for good crop emergence and adequate rainfall to get the crop off to a good start.
Rainfall has been a bit on the light side in some areas of the province as of mid-May. In fact, although some wheat fields look very good some of the wheat fields that got side dressed late because of tough ground conditions are in need of a good rain. So far at least in the deep southwest of Ontario that has not happened. Weather is always a dominant factor with regard to crop progress. So far it is led to slow development, but of course we’re hoping for a quick turnaround.
Ontario corn basis levels have hardly changed from the last Market Trends report. In fact if anything they are a bit lower. Soy