Show Notes
US and the World
In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th.
The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs.
These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report.
On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.
Ontario
Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead.
Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this.
Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on.
Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the provinc